| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | W | Charlotte | 34-11 | 1473.2 | +69.9 | 1543.1 | 64.6% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Lindenwood | 20-13 | 1543.1 | -51.7 | 1491.4 | 93.1% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Southern Miss | 22-38 | 1491.4 | -75.8 | 1415.6 | 77.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | Boise State | 14-47 | 1415.0 | -51.7 | 1363.3 | 16.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Oregon State | 27-23 | 1363.3 | +22.1 | 1385.4 | 31.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Georgia State | 41-20 | 1385.4 | +45.7 | 1431.1 | 57.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Coastal Carolina | 37-45 | 1431.1 | -24.8 | 1406.3 | 58.9% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | Old Dominion | 21-24 | 1406.3 | +25.7 | 1432.0 | 21.4% |
| 12 | Nov 6 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 23-25 | 1437.4 | -7.8 | 1429.6 | 47.9% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | James Madison | 10-58 | 1429.6 | -47.4 | 1382.2 | 10.7% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Marshall | 26-24 | 1382.2 | +13.0 | 1395.2 | 24.9% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Arkansas State | 29-30 | 1395.2 | -1.1 | 1394.1 | 44.9% |
| 20 | Dec 29 2025 | L | Georgia Southern | 10-29 | 1400.7 | -23.4 | 1377.3 | 43.4% |