| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Maine | 55-3 | 1488.2 | +27.2 | 1515.4 | 90.5% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | East Carolina | 27-24 | 1515.4 | +5.3 | 1520.6 | 44.5% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Charlotte | 26-21 | 1520.6 | -0.9 | 1519.7 | 81.4% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | L | NC State | 31-41 | 1519.7 | +14.0 | 1533.8 | 17.9% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | L | Old Dominion | 3-10 | 1523.3 | -27.5 | 1495.9 | 64.2% |